It might give you some wiggle-room, and you may be able to adjust the elastic length to maintain a good fly sheet tension.
But, unless you pre-curve the poles, you're unlikely to get a circular arc. Even then, the loading is likely to distort a pre-curved pole.
You can experiment with pole shapes by taking a piece of stiff, but flexible material and bending it into a hoop. If you like, you can then trace the outline onto a piece of paper. You might plot the shape of the curve, and stick it into a curve-fitting tool to see if it can find a polynomial equation, but my recollection is that beams bend with some obscure trigonometric functions. You might google for the shape of a stiff beam fixed into a wall, with a load attached at the end. This will give a reasonable model of half a symmetric pole hoop, with the wall being the point at the centre of the hoop.
Even with this shape, the stressed fabric loading will change the hoop shape again; we know from empirical experience that an erected hooped tent can be quite easily distorted by hand, so not much force is required to change the hoop shape.