I'd not bin the down jacket unless you're desperate for cash and/or its a bad jacket. Down lasts a long time if stored uncompressed and packed its got the best insulation/weight/volume story.
I'd agree for UK 90% of the winter days, you'd find the Prism sufficient, but just a caution if that's literaly all you're going to take for winter.
As to "run warm" for many that is actually when they are active and/or recently fed. Many who "run warm" then flip to the opposite when they are tired/inactive/hungry because the furnace has no fuel.
Yesterday was my 5th concurrent active day, I did 6 hours hard exercise and I'd miscalculated my lunch requirements, probably due to not eating enough the day before, and began getting hungry before I got home, and I was getting cold. I could then NOT get warm, it was under a duvet wearing clothes for an hour til my next meal warmed me up, then it was back to usual, the least-dressed person in the house. I'm usually in t-shirt and shorts when others fleeces and trousers, but not when I get tired and hungry.
I'd recommend also getting a synth gilet to pack to layer when required over a Prism, even if its packed 90% of the time.