Walter the Weather Girl has another set of data to add to her Friday weather reports, after the world's first ever midge forecasting system was launched on Monday. The forecasts cover the whole of Scotland, and let walkers know whether to expect high, medium, or low midge densities. The service comes courtesy of Advanced Pest Solutions (APS), with leading midge specialist Dr Alison Blackwell at its helm.
Dr Blackwell with Giles Laverack trapping midges at his wild flower seed business in Brechin
From now on, forecasts will be published daily on the website www.midgeforecast.co.uk. If you're on holiday in the Highlands and the nearest internet cafe's a mile or two away (!) you can also see the print version in the 'Press and Journal' - a daily newspaper in northern Scotland, where walkers are most likely to bump into marauding parties of midges. Not only that, APS is also planning a service that will send midge forecasts direct to your mobile. If you're a hotel or business owner you can even subscribe to site-specific midge forecasts. A trap and a mini weather station will be installed at your premises to help refine the local forecast and hey presto!
So, how does it all work? Dr Blackwell explains:
“My colleagues and I have been studying local midge populations throughout Scotland for many years. After collecting midge population data, combined with historical local weather data, we were able to establish a relationship between weather and midge activity. From this we have been able to formulate a midge forecast that can predict midge activity in any given location throughout Scotland.”
APS is currently based at the University of Edinburgh, where it combines its midge density data with Met Office weather data to calculate the final forecast. Dr Blackwell also has a network of Midge traps and weather stations stretching right the way from Shetland to the Borders to help verify the data.
Although the news that someone's going to forecast midge levels may come as a surprise to most of us, Dr Blackwell doesn't see it that way. After all, it's not only weather systems and avalanche dangers that are regularly forecast in the media. Other data, such as pollen levels, receives the same treatment. So why not midge levels?
Put like that, it all sounds scientific enough, but once you've got the forecast, what then? Well, APS assure us that they don't necessarily expect people to change their plans in light of predicted midge levels, just to take their insect repellent out into the hills with them. The company will also provide a longer term, five day forecast, to help people plan their outdoor activities in advance - like when to hold a barbecue, for example. “The five day forecast will be useful for holiday makers, as they will be able to use it to help decide which days would be best to visit indoor or outdoor attractions in the same way that a five day weather forecast does,” a company spokesmen comments. If your favourite attractions always lie outdoors, midge repellent remains the way forward though:-)
